Thanks to new offshore drilling techniques, Louisiana is expected to see a boost in oil and natural gas jobs by mid-2023, according to an article in The Advocate that details a recently released LSU report.

Despite the good news of this increase in jobs, natural gas prices on the Gulf Coast could remain high as long as demand for liquefied natural gas remains high. According to the 2023 Gulf Coast Energy Outlook from the LSU Center for Energy Studies, Louisiana has lost 8,700 jobs in the upstream oil and gas sector whenever COVID-19 caused the demand for fossil fuels to decrease.

Thankfully, this trend has changed as pandemic production pressures have since eased. Louisiana has regained about 2,500 of those jobs that were lost thanks to the returning demand. In comparison, Texas had lost 83,000 jobs in that same sector, but the state is expected to gain 12,200 upstream jobs by the second quarter of 2023. The report went on to reflectively say, “it is important to note that although employment is expected to increase over the forecast horizon, these model results are not anticipating employment in either state to reach pre-COVID levels over the forecast horizon.”

According to the report, it’s expected that the prices of crude oil, which have hovered around the $80 to $90 per barrel range in recent years, should stay closer to $80 per barrel in 2023 as futures prices continue to fall.

Gulf Coast crude oil production is forecasted to grow throughout the 2020s, reaching a total of $9 million barrels per day by year-end 2022. This is an increase from $7.7 million per barrel in 2020 and $7.8million in 2021. Higher crude prices are expected to drive this growth, and by 2032, Gulf Coast oil production should reach 11.7 million barrels per day. Gulf Coast production for natural gas should be around 53 billion cubic feet per day by 2022, which is up from 44.4 billion in 2020, and 46.5 billion in 2021. According to the report, Gulf Coast natural gas production should reach over 68 billion cubic feet per day by 2032.

LSU’s Center for Energy Studies reflected on these projections by saying, “as with prior years, there is plenty of oil in the ground to sustain a decade of production growth.” In fact, the report projects that a global energy demand will likely lead to an increase in U.S. exports of crude oil and natural gas. Particularly, this export increase will pertain to LNG, which the report referred to as “representing a continued growth opportunity” for the Gulf Coast.

The report found that the long-term shift in the energy sector towards renewables presents both a challenge and opportunity for Gulf Coast states, while decarbonization – the ongoing transition away from carbon-inducing fossil fuels– will rapidly reshape the US’ Gulf Coast. In Louisiana, much of the push toward net zero emissions relies on carbon capture. The controversial technology aims to capture industrial carbon dioxide emissions and bury them deep underground. However, uncertainty surrounding the technology has led to pushback from residents in Livingston and St. Helena, who are concerned about the safety of their natural resources.

The executive director of the LSU Center for Energy Studies, David Dismukes, said that if carbon capture is required to be implemented in order for Louisiana to meet its emissions, then it will need to begin “moving pretty fast.” He expanded on this thought by saying that “if this is going to take off, it’s going to take a lot of education” in order to ease fears. Luckily, according to Dismukes, Louisiana State University and the Louisiana State Government should be the ones to lead such efforts.

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